Sunday, December 11, 2011

Dough rising

Remember when "Dollars to Doughnuts" referred to two things of radically different value or probability?  Not so much anymore.

I was driving past a Dunkin' Donuts recently, and it's almost impossible not to do so in this area as there are about three per mile, and saw a poster advertising a half dozen for about $4.00.  I understand the overhead involved, but what do you think the product cost is for a doughnut, maybe 15 cents? But if you're buying doughnuts regularly, you probably won't need the money anyway.  So you'd think that doughnut shops would be making a financial killing as well, but who eats doughnuts these days (and they are delicious)?  Mostly old folks, families with bad moms, and Canadians.  Now with all the justified concern about obesity, the doughnut shops are turning to healthier foods.  But who goes to a doughnut shop if they want to eat healthy? (that's what Chipotle is for- I like Chipotle)  No, coffee is where the money is, with about a 90% gross margin.

A lot of people just want a decent cup of java at a reasonable price, especially coffee on the run (and that's what you'll be doing about an hour later), rather than what they'll find at Starbucks. (Grande? Really?)  But there is still something fundamentally tempting about the lowly doughnut.  I can still remember that as a kid on the coast of Maine in yesteryear summers what a treat it was to load up the car after the evening's family card game to take a spin up to Old Orchard (if not walk down the beach road for clam cakes) to watch the sour old man with the handlebar mustache make those tasty delights in front of you while you wait.  And even today, when a salesperson brings in a dozen beauties, those nutritionally pious faculty suddenly devolve into a horde of doughnut locusts.  Yes, it's easy enough not to stop at the store, but an entirely different matter when there's one right in front of you calling your name.  And doughnot holes?  Genius (makes up for those horrible jelly-filled).  Ummmm, doughnutsss, non-nom-nom...

imagre from forum.bodybuilding.com

Labels: , , ,

Sunday, December 04, 2011

Occupado

This "Occupy" movement is interesting, but I'm not exactly sure what it's about, and in particular what the protesters want.  As best I can tell, the main participants are idealists who see gross injustice in capitalism's excesses in compensating individuals, the unemployed and underemployed who want more of the pie as they are angry at those who seem to have disproportionate slices (a variation of class envy), and those who just like to stir up the pot using the cause-du-jour (though for most not rising to the level of anarchists). The first and last groups can be dismissed fairly easily.  In the first case, it's just the usual socialist arguments, but the thing is, socialism is great in theory, but doesn't work in practice.  In circumstances other than rudimentary microeconomic situations, some people will not play fair and follow the rules, and thus socialism is doomed to failure regardless of whether its philosophical arguments have merit or not. (As Churchill said, “It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.”)  And for the rabble-rousers, and I don't think there are that many of them, well, they just seem to like the rousing.  But it's the middle group that's interesting...

There are a lot of unhappy people.  When you see people rioting in London, of all places, because they're angry about being poor and not having jobs (and who wouldn't be?), you know things are bad.  The middle class may or may not be evaporating, and it's hardly a new complaint or phenomenon ("Let them eat cake!"- widely and probably inaccurately attributed to Marie Antoinette.  I like the Mel Brooks History of the World, Part I version better:  "The people are revolting."  to which the king responds "You said it; they stink on ice.").  People are unhappy about the level of corporate profits and in particular the ridiculously high executive salaries.  I'd agree that executive salaries are often wildly excessive, but those in the movement seem to believe, much as many students do, that effort is the important measure of value, i.e., I deserve a good grade because I tried so hard.  But effort and productivity, in terms of quality and value, are not the same.  For instance, it's a good thing to teach children that trying your best and good sportsmanship are what's most important in playing a sport, but the practice of not keeping score delivers the inappropriate message that performance does not matter.  Oh, but we don't want children to feel that they've lost, as this might hurt their delicate self-esteem.  Congratulations, now we have a generation with too many irresponsible, entitled, and self-absorbed people.

So anyway, people are unhappy because they try hard too but are not paid a lot.  This usually reduces to the "luck" argument, where someone wins the birth lottery or is the right place at the right time.   There's probably a lot of truth to that, as there is ample evidence to support the proposition that there is a ton of brilliance and talent out there that goes unrewarded, comparatively, as evidenced by American Idol, for instance (still have never watched that show).  So I think it's fairly obvious that it isn't just those that are three standard deviations out from the mean that are the super-successful.  Just look at those who went to high school with you who weren't as smart or athletic or popular or whatever seems to matter in high school and yet they have a way bigger paycheck, status, etc. Maybe they have more motivation or other skills or attributes that matter, even if those skills or attributes shouldn't really matter, or maybe it's just luck.  It's also pretty obvious, though, that in many cases the lucky have contributed to some degree to their own luck.  What's fascinating to me is not just the randomness involved for someone to end up in a position to receive monster compensation for their performance, but in the randomness involved in being perceived as a high performer.

This is especially true where others are involved in the outcome.  Over time, a baseball player's batting average will probably "even out," where the randomness that affects which batted balls in play become base hits regresses to the mean.  But for a corporate executive, whose bonus is tied to company performance, those strategic and tactical decisions are often swamped by exogenous factors such as the economy and competition, not to mention that others in the company are often doing a good deal of the work.  In other words, CEOs and senior executives typically don't have a lot to do with the company's performance.  I read a book a while back cataloging this in some detail, but I'm pretty sure this blog is long enough already.

Is that fair that the randomness of selection and the randomness of perception should make the 1% so different from the 99%?  Who knows, who cares.  If you measure your worth by others you'll always be unhappy as there is always somebody "better" than you.  And how many people are jealous of the success of even their friends?  Envy has no purpose. 

image from democraticunderground.com



Labels: